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Fantasy Baseball 12 Team 5×5 Mock Draft Results

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Below are the results for our 12 team standard 5×5 mock draft that we did with the ITL Army. Listed are the first 12 rounds. You can listen to the podcast where we talk about this draft RIGHT HERE!

 

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Round 1
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
OF Anthony Trout, Mike – LAA 1 1
2B Jesse S Altuve, José – HOU 2 2
1B Evan Goldschmidt, Paul – ARI 3 3
3B Rosa Arenado, Nolan – COL 4 4
SS Trevor Welsh Turner, Trea – WAS 5 5
OF Kory Harper, Bryce – WAS 6 6
OF Gammill Blackmon, Charlie – COL 7 7
SP Bogman Kershaw, Clayton – LAD 8 8
3B Brian Roecker Bryant, Kris – CHC 9 9
OF The Welsh Betts, Mookie – BOS 10 10
SS Just A Guy Correa, Carlos – HOU 11 11
OF Robert Russell Stanton, Giancarlo – NYY 12 12
Round 2
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
OF Robert Russell Judge, Aaron – NYY 1 13
SP Just A Guy Sale, Chris – BOS 2 14
1B The Welsh Votto, Joey – CIN 3 15
SP Brian Roecker Kluber, Corey – CLE 4 16
3B Bogman Machado, Manny – BAL 5 17
SP Gammill Scherzer, Max – WAS 6 18
1B Kory Freeman, Freddie – ATL 7 19
1B Trevor Welsh Rizzo, Anthony – CHC 8 20
SS Rosa Lindor, Francisco – CLE 9 21
SP Evan Bumgarner, Madison – SF 10 22
OF Jesse S Springer, George – HOU 11 23
OF Anthony Martinez, J.D. – (N/A) 12 24
Round 3
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
SS Anthony Seager, Corey – LAD 1 25
3B Jesse S Ramírez, José – CLE 2 26
2B Evan Gordon, Dee – SEA 3 27
C Rosa Sánchez, Gary – NYY 4 28
OF Trevor Welsh Bellinger, Cody – LAD 5 29
3B Kory Donaldson, Josh – TOR 6 30
SP Gammill Greinke, Zack – ARI 7 31
OF Bogman Cruz, Nelson – SEA 8 32
SS Brian Roecker Bregman, Alex – HOU 9 33
SP The Welsh Syndergaard, Noah – NYM 10 34
1B Just A Guy Abreu, José – CHW 11 35
SP Robert Russell Strasburg, Stephen – WAS 12 36
Round 4
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
1B Robert Russell Hoskins, Rhys – PHI 1 37
3B Just A Guy Rendon, Anthony – WAS 2 38
SP The Welsh Ohtani, Shohei (R) – LAA 3 39
OF Brian Roecker Marte, Starling – PIT 4 40
SP Bogman Carrasco, Carlos – CLE 5 41
OF Gammill Ozuna, Marcell – STL 6 42
SP Kory deGrom, Jacob – NYM 7 43
SP Trevor Welsh Severino, Luis – NYY 8 44
SP Rosa Verlander, Justin – HOU 9 45
MI Evan Dozier, Brian – MIN 10 46
SP Jesse S Darvish, Yu – (N/A) 11 47
SP Anthony Martínez, Carlos – STL 12 48
Round 5
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
OF Anthony Pollock, A.J. – ARI 1 49
OF Jesse S Benintendi, Andrew – BOS 2 50
CI Evan Encarnacion, Edwin – CLE 3 51
2B Rosa Murphy, Daniel – WAS 4 52
RP Trevor Welsh Jansen, Kenley – LAD 5 53
OF Kory Upton, Justin – LAA 6 54
SS Gammill Andrus, Elvis – TEX 7 55
2B Bogman Schoop, Jonathan – BAL 8 56
OF Brian Roecker Buxton, Byron – MIN 9 57
OF The Welsh Hamilton, Billy – CIN 10 58
MI Just A Guy Segura, Jean – SEA 11 59
OF Robert Russell Yelich, Christian – MIA 12 60
Round 6
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
3B Robert Russell Sanó, Miguel – MIN 1 61
SP Just A Guy Ray, Robbie – ARI 2 62
CI The Welsh Myers, Wil – SD 3 63
SP Brian Roecker Nola, Aaron – PHI 4 64
OF Bogman McCutchen, Andrew – PIT 5 65
1B Gammill Hosmer, Eric – (N/A) 6 66
SP Kory Archer, Chris – TB 7 67
OF Trevor Welsh Pham, Tommy – STL 8 68
OF Rosa Céspedes, Yoenis – NYM 9 69
OF Evan Davis, Khris – OAK 10 70
SS Jesse S Bogaerts, Xander – BOS 11 71
3B Anthony Turner, Justin – LAD 12 72
Round 7
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
SP Anthony Keuchel, Dallas – HOU 1 73
SP Jesse S Berríos, José – MIN 2 74
RP Evan Kimbrel, Craig – BOS 3 75
OF Rosa Santana, Domingo – MIL 4 76
C Trevor Welsh Posey, Buster – SF 5 77
2B Kory Canó, Robinson – SEA 6 78
3B Gammill Shaw, Travis – MIL 7 79
MI Bogman Merrifield, Whit – KC 8 80
CI Brian Roecker Devers, Rafael – BOS 9 81
SP The Welsh Arrieta, Jake – (N/A) 10 82
CI Just A Guy Lamb, Jake – ARI 11 83
SP Robert Russell Quintana, José – CHC 12 84
Round 8
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
SP Robert Russell Tanaka, Masahiro – NYY 1 85
OF Just A Guy Braun, Ryan – MIL 2 86
UT The Welsh Cabrera, Miguel – DET 3 87
RP Brian Roecker Chapman, Aroldis – NYY 4 88
SP Bogman Paxton, James – SEA 5 89
OF Gammill Castellanos, Nicholas – DET 6 90
CI Kory Moustakas, Mike – (N/A) 7 91
SP Trevor Welsh Wood, Alex – LAD 8 92
SP Rosa Gray, Sonny – NYY 9 93
UT Evan Odor, Rougned – TEX 10 94
C Jesse S Contreras, Willson – CHC 11 95
2B Anthony Moncada, Yoán – CHW 12 96
Round 9
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
MI Anthony Gregorius, Didi – NYY 1 97
SP Jesse S Stroman, Marcus – TOR 2 98
RP Evan Knebel, Corey – MIL 3 99
OF Rosa Eaton, Adam – WAS 4 100
2B Trevor Welsh Taylor, Chris – LAD 5 101
SP Kory Cole, Gerrit – PIT 6 102
SP Gammill Godley, Zack – ARI 7 103
RP Bogman Giles, Ken – HOU 8 104
2B Brian Roecker Happ, Ian – CHC 9 105
OF The Welsh Acuña, Ronald – ATL 10 106
2B Just A Guy LeMahieu, DJ – COL 11 107
P Robert Russell Lester, Jon – CHC 12 108
Round 10
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
P Robert Russell Price, David – BOS 1 109
SP Just A Guy Castillo, Luis – CIN 2 110
UT The Welsh Olson, Matt – OAK 3 111
1B Brian Roecker Mancini, Trey – BAL 4 112
OF Bogman Cain, Lorenzo – (N/A) 5 113
RP Gammill Díaz, Edwin – SEA 6 114
UT Kory Carpenter, Matt – STL 7 115
SP Trevor Welsh McCullers Jr., Lance – HOU 8 116
SP Rosa Hendricks, Kyle – CHC 9 117
UT Evan Santana, Carlos – PHI 10 118
1B Jesse S Bell, Josh – PIT 11 119
RP Anthony Osuna, Roberto – TOR 12 120
Round 11
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
SP Anthony Duffy, Danny – KC 1 121
MI Jesse S Báez, Javier – CHC 2 122
3B Evan Seager, Kyle – SEA 3 123
P Rosa Weaver, Luke – STL 4 124
RP Trevor Welsh Allen, Cody – CLE 5 125
SS Kory Story, Trevor – COL 6 126
CI Gammill Gallo, Joey – TEX 7 127
1B Bogman Bour, Justin – MIA 8 128
RP Brian Roecker Bradley, Archie – ARI 9 129
RP The Welsh Iglesias, Raisel – CIN 10 130
RP Just A Guy Rivero, Felipe – PIT 11 131
2B Robert Russell González, Marwin – HOU 12 132
Round 12
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
UT Robert Russell Puig, Yasiel – LAD 1 133
OF Just A Guy Desmond, Ian – COL 2 134
3B The Welsh Béltre, Adrián – TEX 3 135
OF Brian Roecker Polanco, Gregory – PIT 4 136
RP Bogman Hand, Brad – SD 5 137
RP Gammill Colomé, Alex – TB 6 138
P Kory Fulmer, Michael – DET 7 139
OF Trevor Welsh Schwarber, Kyle – CHC 8 140
RP Rosa Davis, Wade – COL 9 141
SP Evan Gray, Jon – COL 10 142
P Jesse S Cueto, Johnny – SF 11 143
1B Anthony Smoak, Justin – TOR 12 144

Chris Welsh hosts the Football, Baseball and Basketball podcasts with Scott Bogman. The Welsh is the creator of Prospect One, the fantasy baseball prospect podcast, and the series of content surrounding prospects.

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Duck Tales

Baseball Duck Tales – 2017 Season Wrap (NL)

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Amidst the Shohei Ohtani and Stanton madness (How exciting is this stuff?!) and basically nothing else (How boring is this stuff?), we continue our season wrap up of the 2017 Duck leaderboard, this time highlighting one standout Duck rating from the NL teams. As per usual for posterity, if you’re new to the series, the Duck is a combined calculation of a number of metrics to find an accessible representation of pitching performance. Check out the origins of the calculations here.

For reference, here are the 2017 league averages for starters according to Fangraphs:

  • SwStr%: 9.80%
  • K%: 20.60%
  • BABIP: 0.299
  • BB%: 8.10%
  • xFIP: 4.41
  • HardCon%: 32.30%
  • ERA: 4.49
  • WHIP: 1.36

Let’s take a look at some standout Ducks from the NL this year.

NL East

  • ATL: Julio Teheran (109th)
    • Was it really going to be anyone else? Teheran went from a very rock solid and safe top-25ish guy to doing almost nothing above league average. Part of it “could” be the new ballpark, but we don’t have nearly the data to confirm the ballpark will trend to a hitter’s haven. On top of that, Teheran’s BABIP hints that he might have even been a little lucky on balls in play. I’m not against him in general but there’s more downside than upside at this point.
  • MIA: Dan Straily (54th)
    • I like Dan Straily. There, I said it. I just feel that the range of outcomes is not very wide for him. He’s a boring pitcher, but eating innings is important throughout the fantasy season. One of the arguments against him: “But he plays for a garbage team so he won’t get wins!” My response: “Don’t use wins.”
  • NYM: Matt Harvey (147th)
    • I’m very sad. I just want Matt Harvey to be good again. I just want to believe that the injuries and the Adriana Lima debacle made him suck. I just want to be happy. Maybe the fear about returning from thoracic outlet surgery and never being the same is valid (despite the limited cases studies we have. I’m not a doctor.). I think if he looks at least goodish coming into the season, I’ll take the plunge one more time. Feel free to join me but I don’t want to take responsibility if we drown.
  • PHI: Aaron Nola (20th)
    • Aaron Nola is a star. There’s talk of him comfortably in the top 20 going into next season and the Duck doesn’t have issue with that. He’s another one of those “all green” players on the metric, and I don’t have nearly the same injury concerns that I have with the other all green mentioned in the last article (James Paxton). I’m happy with Nola as my SP2 or SP3 in 2018
  • WSH: Gio Gonzalez (93rd)
    • Obviously. This season-long excellence pretty much came as a pretty big surprise. Gio Gonzalez has been on the spectrum from “he’s a fine pitcher” to “oh, that was actually a pretty good season” for a long time. This was a step even further above that and I think it’s well established that we don’t expect something like this again. Still, there’s going to continue to be mid-round value that shouldn’t be ignored.

NL Central

  • CIN: Luis Castillo (29th)
    • Castillo is the new darling in many expert circles. He’s a little wild, but the strikeouts are very tantalizing. He’s going to be right there in the top 30 range for a lot of rankers, but I’m definitely wary of repeatable performance. I just don’t like the idea of taking him as a shiny new toy over someone like Jon Lester who has a track record of solid production for years.
  • CHC: Jon Lester (30th)
    • Speaking of Jon Lester… by all intents and purposes Jon Lester had a bad season. A 4.33 ERA is unheard of for Lester in recent memory. Still, the underlying numbers think he’s way better than advertised (another all green) and while I’m not a Lester guy (it’s mostly just his face, really) there are a plethora of worse options.
  • MIL: Jimmy Nelson (13th)
    • We need the DH in both leagues. It’s just a shame that Jimmy Nelson is going to miss half the season with a base running injury. After a few seasons of will he/won’t he become a guy, this last season he actually did become a guy, and that guy played a pivotal role in getting the Brewers to an unprecedented playoff berth. I can’t help but think it could have been a different story if both Nelson and Chase Anderson had been healthy. Still, there’s a chance Nelson is priced down significantly because of the injury, and could be a sneaky later round pick.
  • PIT: Gerrit Cole (35th)
    • Let me preface this: I think Gerrit Cole is good. I think he could still be great. But I would be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge that the numbers to this point have been disappointing. Someone who can dial it up to 98+ should theoretically be able to blow hitters away and he hasn’t shown that ability consistently. I wonder if this could be a change of scenery case. There have been talks of Cole to the Twins, and if that happens, I might just push him up my board a bit as a speculative upside play. We’ve seen it before, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t be a sub-3 ERA guy again.
  • STL: Lance Lynn (125th)
    • Lynn is going to be on another team next year, who will be looking for a stable 200 inning guy in the middle of their rotation to eat up innings in the dog days of the summer. I’ll note that Lynn hasn’t gotten to 200 innings in three seasons, but the idea is valid. I kind of think the Duck falls a bit short on this measure. The rating thinks he is far below average given the metrics, but I just feel like Lynn is a valuable middle rotation MLB piece and a valuable back end rotation fantasy piece and there’s just not a ton of questions there.

NL West

  • ARI: Zack Godley (24th)
    • We love Zack Godley. He’s just a fun player. Being able to keep the ball on the ground as he does is a great boon in that ballpark and ties in well with surprisingly high strikeout numbers. I feel as though he’ll be a little undervalued at the draft table, but I don’t see a lot of reasons he’s not going to be some shade of 2017 again.
  • COL: Jon Gray (22nd)
    • If he was on any other team, Jon Gray would be considered a true ace, a top-15ish starter, and someone you were okay with as your SP1.5 in fantasy. I’m very pro Gray and I think he’s the guy who will be the first pitcher to overcome Coors since Ubaldo Jimenez back in 2010. I dream of an ERA under 3.30.
  • LAD: Alex Wood (19th)
    • I bought into Wood after his first lengthy campaign in Atlanta in 2014, and it obviously didn’t play out as expected and I didn’t initially pay much mind to him putting together what ended up being an amazing season as a whole this season. The injury was there because of course we can’t have nice things. He faded down the stretch and that is some cause for concern but anywhere between 3.20 and 3.40 in 2018 would be a great follow-up season.
  • SD: Dinelson Lamet (77th)
    • Lamet is the epitome of risky flamethrower. The stuff is there, the consistency and the control are just not. An alarmingly high hard contact rate shows that if he wasn’t fanning or walking the hitters, he was turning around to watch the ball fly past him into the outfield. He seems like a big high risk/high reward play next season.
  • SF: Johnny Cueto (73rd)
    • There has been a lot of panic about Cueto and the fact that he had objectively an awful season. I guess I’m just not that worried. Just like Lester, this track record he’s shown matters. In a very early mock I was involved in, Cueto was available well into the mid-100 pick range, and I just think that’s silly. No one would be surprised if Cueto can get back to a low 3 ERA, especially in that home ballpark, and I would be drafting him pretty close to Lester as a proven commodity and take the fall if they’ve really gone off a cliff.

That’s a wrap of our brief look through the inaugural season of the Duck rating. I expect that we’ll check in before the season and preview the major pitcher signings and their outlooks in the upcoming season, so stay tuned!

All statistics pulled from Fangraphs leaderboards.

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Fantasy Podcasts

Episode 45 – Prospect Player Debates Part 1 with James Anderson of Rotowire

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James Anderson of Rotowire is back on the show as he and The Welsh are doing a two part debate series. Today we’ve got 10 player vs player match-ups that will get your mind moving like Chavis vs Riley or Robles vs Jimenez!

 

Check out my latest article at Rotowire on prospects who raised their stock from the AFL

 

Have a question for the show? Tweet me @IsItTheWelsh with the hashtag #ProspectOne to talk about your question on the show, or email me at ProspectOne@inthisleague.com

 

Enjoy the podcast? Subscribe to the show on iTunes today. Please consider giving the show a rate and review. It helps us out big time! Don’t do iTunes? We’re on TuneIn right hereAlso find the show on Stitcher If you want to participate in the show with a Prospect Fantasy Question, a Story, Autograph stories, really anything, hit me up at @IsItTheWelsh@gmail.com

 

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Duck Tales

Baseball Duck Tales – 2017 Season Wrap Part 1 (AL)

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After a great World Series and some time off of baseball, we’re back to… talk about baseball. Today I want to take a end-of-season look at our 2017 Duck leaderboard. The final leaderboard serves as our retrospective for all pitchers for the 2017 season, and a potential way to look under the surface and see if anything we see here can serve as a predictive primer for future performance.  As per usual for posterity if you’re just finding this series, the Duck rating is a formulaic way to look at important pitching metrics and dig a little deeper underneath the surface statistics that we are generally most privy to as fans. To find how we calculate the Duck, check our original introduction here. Another side note: The 80 IP minimum used in our calculations are as a starter, so it doesn’t account for any relief appearances.

For reference, here are the 2017 league averages for starters according to Fangraphs:

  • SwStr%: 9.80%
  • K%: 20.60%
  • BABIP: 0.299
  • BB%: 8.10%
  • xFIP: 4.41
  • HardCon%: 32.30%
  • ERA: 4.49
  • WHIP: 1.36

This 2017 Wrap will be the first of a two part series in which we’ll take a quick scan of one interesting Duck rating from each team in the league, starting with the American League.

AL East

  • BAL: Dylan Bundy (79th)
    • What a hot and cold season for Bundy. Started the season with some dominant starts, but he really tailed off and became just a solid back end fantasy starter. He never ended up taking that step forward that we’ve been waiting for since he was drafted. Maybe that step just doesn’t come. The strikeouts aren’t really where we want them to be (152 in 169.2 IP). I think he’s fine, but maybe he’s just that.
  • BOS: Drew Pomeranz (70th)
    • Pomeranz is such an interesting case. At first glance, it’s hard to complain about the ERA in this environment. The Duck tells us that we should be wary though. The high WHIP and high strand rate seems like a ticking time bomb in that ballpark.
  • NYY: Masahiro Tanaka (7th)
    • The talk is all about Luis Severino in New York, and for good reason, but we’ve talked about Tanaka before in this series. He’s the poster child of a good pitcher who had a bad season. The home runs were THE problem, and that shows how volatile pitching is. Tanaka was above average on the positive end for every metric involved in the Duck, and ERA was the only outlier. He’s sticking around in New York, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a better ERA/WHIP combo than Severino in 2018.
  • TB: Alex Cobb (112th)
    • I’ve historically been a fan of Alex Cobb. Before his run-in with the injury bug, he was in conversation as an elite pitcher. I just don’t think the upside to be much better than the 3.66 ERA is there. A 4.24 xFIP is okay, but not sexy. The strikeouts have never been sexy at the major league level, and a K/9 below 7.00 is hard to swallow.
  • TOR: Marcus Stroman (45th)
    • Stroman is the enemy of the Duck. His money is obviously made with an amazing groundball rate, and that’s not a contributor to our metric here. He’s one of the kings of “pretty good” at everything, and that just puts him at a high floor SP3 who pairs with an elite K flamethrower. That’s been the Stroman story for a few years and that’s as safe a bet as we can make for any pitcher going forward.

AL Central

  • CLE: Mike Clevinger (71st)
    • I just want to start out by saying that the Indians had four pitchers in the top 20 of our season-ending leaderboard. That’s just insane (It’s almost like they had one of the best pitching staffs ever.). But I really want to bring up Clevinger. He falls just behind Pomeranz on the leaderboard, but he’s easily the more exciting pitcher. It’s hard understand why he carried a sub-3 ERA across 120+ innings, with limited control and more loud contact than desired, but a 3.50/1.25 pitcher with good strikeouts going forward is definitely useful.
  • CWS: James Shields (124th)
    • I didn’t have a lot of options here since they traded everything that breathed and at the end of the season the only requirement to pitch for the squad was to have all limbs attached and live within a 25 mile radius of the ballpark. PSA: don’t draft James Shields.
  • DET: Anibal Sanchez (28th)
    • That is not a typo. The Duck likes the fact that he didn’t give up many free passes, and feels he was more unlucky than anything with a serviceable 4.18 xFIP and a ballooned BABIP. I don’t know how actionable this is, since he’s not actually with the team anymore at this point. Maybe keep an eye if he goes somewhere favorable and accidentally runs into a few decent starts.
  • KC: Jakob Junis (82nd)
    • I’m secretly a fan of Jake Junis, since he was pivotal to some deep playoff runs for me this season in fantasy. Really though, I just don’t think he’s special. Anyone that can pitch to a 4ish ERA will be fantasy relevant, and he should be on radars and maybe even drafted late in some very deep leagues, but he’s going to be passed around like a bottle of crown in most leagues (+10 for anyone who gets that reference).
  • MIN: Ervin Santana (83rd)
    • The Twins surprise duck would obviously be Ervin Santana. I want to play a little devil’s advocate here. The only thing that eventually matters is the final numbers, and Santana found a way to overcome some glaring flaws to put up the season line that he did. Obviously, regression is in the cards, and probably in a big way, but maybe that regression isn’t to a 4.50 ERA but closer to a 3.85 which, again, is very helpful in this environment.

AL West

  • HOU: Charlie Morton (23rd)
    • How cool is it that Charlie Morton was a thing? How cool is it that he clinched the first World Series for that team? He’s been aggressively “meh” for so long and he put together just a fantastic season. This isn’t too different a case than Danny Duffy in some ways, where Morton finds another gear and turns up the gas on his pitches and sees some success. All that being said, just like Duffy had struggles losing velocity and passing out in Burger King drive-thrus, Morton could see some of the same, but hopefully he’ll have some respectability to at least get to Whataburger instead.
  • LAA: Parker Bridwell (119th)
    • Don’t draft Parker Bridwell. Literally nothing about this can go that well. In the best case scenario he doesn’t obliterate your ratios on a weekly basis.
  • OAK: Jharel Cotton (122nd)
    • I’m just sad about this. I was really interested in Cotton going into this last season after he flashed some promise in late 2016. The ballpark in Oakland seemed tailor-made for someone with Cotton’s arsenal, but it just didn’t come to fruition. I’ll definitely be eyeing him coming into next season. He’s someone where how he looks in Spring Training might actually matter to see if he sticks in the rotation in the future.
  • SEA: James Paxton (11th)
    • We love James Paxton. He’s just fun. He’s one of just 11 pitchers who is “green” across every metric on the leaderboard, meaning he’s trending positively in every metric in the rating. The big question mark for Paxton remains the health piece. The stuff is there, the amazing nickname is there, now we just wait for 200 innings of electric performances.
  • TEX: Andrew Cashner (150th)
    • Fun fact: there are 153 pitchers on the Duck leaderboard with at least 80 starters innings pitched. To find someone with a better ERA than Cashner on the season, we have to move up 57 spots (Gio Gonzalez. We’ll probably discuss him soon.). Another fun fact: Cashner sucks. Just don’t.

Stay tuned for part 2 of our End-of-season Duckdate soon!

 

All statistics pulled from Fangraphs leaderboards.

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