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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty 10 Round Prospect Mock Draft

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Prospect Mock Drafts you say!! Well of course! That’s what we do with Prospect One! (Make sure to check out the Fantasy Prospect Podcast, Prospect One on iTunes today! Also available anywhere you get podcasts)

 

I got 11 of our wonderful ITL Army members together to conduct a 10 round dynasty prospect draft. Let’s pretend you are starting up a brand new dynasty, and all prospect eligible players are available…well that is where we come in! My co-host at In This League Scott Bogman pulled the 1 slot! I got the 6 spot…and well you can check out all the results below. If you have questions submit them below, or email us for the prospect one podcast, @ isitthewelsh@gmail.com.

 

Follow me on Twitter @IsItTheWelsh

 

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Let’s get to the mock…

 

 

RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
1 1 Bogman Yoan Moncada
1 2 Scott Cody Bellinger
1 3 Chamey Andrew Beintendi
1 4 Steve Victor Robles
1 5 Joe Dansby Swanson
1 6 Welsh Gleyber Torres
1 7 Souriyo Austin Meadows
1 8 Thomas Brendan Rodgers
1 9 Craig Eloy Jimenez
1 10 Dusty Rafael Devers
1 11 Youngberg JP Crawford
1 12 Jesse Anderson Espinoza

 

 

So let’s talk about the elephant in the room. The 2nd overall pick which was NOT a current or former Red Sox! Cody Bellinger over Benintendi is a bold statement. I asked Scott about the pick, and he said he knew it was a little different, but he felt the prolific power that Bellinger holds, will be more valuable then the toolsy Benintendi. I don’t actually totally disagree with the idea (though I am not doing this myself). Something fair to say as well, is that the 20-30 range has some strong outfield prospects if you are looking to balance out your minor league roster instead of just BAP. Personally Torres is a STEAL at 6. He is a superstar in the making, and I couldn’t have been happier. I would have been willing to go 3 for Torres (back to being fair, there are some solid SS options later as well, depending what you want to do with risk picking aka Maitan). Love the Eloy pick, surprised he fell. Back half of this draft is also solid.

 

 

RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
2 13 Jesse Nick Senzel
2 14 Youngerg Lucas Giolito
2 15 Dusty Clint Frazier
2 16 Craig Kyle Tucker
2 17 Thomas Tyler Glasnow
2 18 Souriyo Lewis Brinson
2 19 Welsh Michael Kopech
2 20 Joe Alex Reyes
2 21 Steve Vlad Guerrero Jr
2 22 Chamey Kyle Lewis
2 23 Scott Corey Ray
2 24 Bogman Mickey Moniak

 

 

2016 1st round draft pick Nick Senzel shows up as the first pick in the 2nd round, and I like it. Four pitchers went in this round, and I was surprised I got Michael Kopech. I think Reyes is a great value regardless of the injury, and I may have taken him had Kopech gone. I am not a Giolito guy, so I don’t live that. Vlad Jr might and probably is the biggest upside here, and I was sad to not get him. All those Outfielders I was talking about with the 2nd overall pick ended the 2nd round. Moniak as the final pick in the 2nd is really solid to go with Moncada.

 

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RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
3 25 Bogman Brent Honeywell
3 26 Scott Kevin Maitan
3 27 Chamey Josh Hader
3 28 Steve Yadier Alvarez
3 29 Joe Ian Happ
3 30 Welsh Blake Rutherford
3 31 Souriyo Manny Margot
3 32 Thomas Amed Rosario
3 33 Craig Jason Groome
3 34 Dusty Willy Adames
3 35 Youngberg Josh Bell
3 36 Jesse Ronald Acuna

 

 

There is a LOT to like about this round. I think this 3rd round might be as important as the 1st. You can view the 1st as full of “Chalk” if you will. Lots of easy picks to be made in the 1st, but the 3rd is such a great place to take your high upside guy (like Vlad JR in the 2nd). Maitan at 26 overall is my favorite favorite favorite, and I just knew he wouldn’t come back, but I dreamed. Alvarez, Acuna, Adames and Rutherford are HIGH upside fantasy picks. Love all here. Happ is a solid pick with the spring he’s had, and Rosario is a great value. MLB.com or Baseball America always have Rosario as a top 10 (accounting for defense), and I like him, just not there, but at 32 overall…solid!

 

 

RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
4 37 Jesse Mitch Keller
4 38 Youngerg Ozzie Albies
4 39 Dusty Jose De Leon
4 40 Craig Francis Martes
4 41 Thomas AJ Puk
4 42 Souriyo Riley Pint
4 43 Welsh Leody Taveras
4 44 Joe Bradley Zimmer
4 45 Steve Francisco Mejia
4 46 Chamey Zack Collins
4 47 Scott Adrian Morejon
4 48 Bogman Franklin Barreto

 

 

Two catchers went in this round, which is a trip, but I get it. I mean I am not taking Zack Collins as the 46th overall player, but he is the real deal. I’ve seen him in person in two different settings, the Arizona Fall League and mid way thru a spring training game. He’s a total live bat, and a solid catcher. I would want him, but I often say “read the room” and I’d be surprised had he not fallen back to the 5th round, or even the 6th. My favorite picks of this round are Keller, Mejia and Morejon. It’s funny Keller is probably one of the biggest risers this year as a Starting Pitcher that we’ve seen a lot of and Adrian Morejon is one of the biggest risers this year as a Starting Pitcher that we’ve seen very little of. I will take the risk with Morejon.

 

 

RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
5 49 Bogman Cal Quantrill
5 50 Scott Alex Kiriloff
5 51 Chamey Kolby Allard
5 52 Steve Juan Soto
5 53 Joe James Kaprielan
5 54 Welsh Isan Diaz
5 55 Souriyo Jharel Cotton
5 56 Thomas Hunter Renfroe
5 57 Craig Ian Anderson
5 58 Dusty Luke Weaver
5 59 Youngberg Reynaldo Lopez
5 60 Jesse Jorge Mateo

 

 

Lot’s of pitchers in the 5th round, 7 to be exact. Quantrill, Lopez and Kap are my favs here. Kiriloff had Tommy John after this draft took place, but injury or not, 50 was a little high for me. Juan Soto who I REALLY like, also was a bit high for me, but both picks become about getting “your” guy. Both players would have been iffy to make it back. One other note that I thought was interesting was that 3 players that are going to start the season and give immediate impact to you went here, Weaver, Renfroe and Cotton. I don’t love the Weaver pick, but all about Renfroe and Cotton.

 

 

 

RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
6 61 Jesse Jeff Hoffman
6 62 Youngerg Carson Kelly
6 63 Dusty Robert Gsellman
6 64 Craig Raimel Tapia
6 65 Thomas Triston McKenzie
6 66 Souriyo Tyler Jay
6 67 Welsh Delvin Perez
6 68 Joe Nick Gordon
6 69 Steve Andres Gimenez
6 70 Chamey Bobby Bradley
6 71 Scott Tyler O’Neill
6 72 Bogman Braxton Garrett

 

 

Not a lot of sexy names here, but some very valuable names. This is the area of drafts where people can say “I don’t want anyone, yuck!” McKenzie, Perez, Garrett and Gimenez have very bright futures. One thing you can see with Steve is he is taking his “guys”. Gimenez is not on many top 100 lists, and probably would have fallen another round or two. He was getting close on my watch list, but I did take Torres and then followed it with Perez, so if I was a scare, it was unwarranted. Nothing wrong though with getting your guys, especially when you know what you’re doing (like Steve does). Scott Guthrie was very happy about O’Neill falling to 71. I don’t disagree, he was becoming a value at that point. Part of the fall might have been due to me, as I have simmered his top 40 talk.

 

 

RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
7 73 Bogman Aaron Judge
7 74 Scott Nick Williams
7 75 Chamey Amir Garrett
7 76 Steve Thomas Szapucki
7 77 Joe Anthony Alford
7 78 Welsh Dominic Smith
7 79 Souriyo Ke’Bryan Hayes
7 80 Thomas Willie Calhoun
7 81 Craig Franklin Perez
7 82 Dusty Matt Chapman
7 83 Youngberg Dylan Cease
7 84 Jesse Matt Manning

 

 

Amir Garrett ended up being a great pick here. This was done before Spring Training started, and I believe had this been done now, he’d have gone top 50 with how he has come out guns blazing. I feel a lot better about Willie “June” Calhoun after seeing more of him at Camelback Ranch. He’s always impressive during BP, but what made me feel better was a scene at the Ranch where 4 coaches took Willie aside to an unused practice field and kept running 2nd base drills! That’s impressive to me, as he doesn’t have a 2B body. Continued belief in this kid is what we need. Jim Callis on my podcast mentioned he believed June would be an outfielder. Getting him on the field and in the lineup is what we want, and I am seeing continued work towards that! Great Starting Pitchers outside of Garrett in this round in Cease, Manning and Szapucki

 

 

RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
8 85 Jesse Lucas Erceg
8 86 Youngerg Forrest Whitley
8 87 Dusty Mike Soroka
8 88 Craig Ramon Laureano
8 89 Thomas Fernando Romero
8 90 Souriyo Stephen Gonsalves
8 91 Welsh Walker Beuhler
8 92 Joe Sean Newcomb
8 93 Steve Sandy Alcantara
8 94 Chamey Tom Murphy
8 95 Scott Casey Gillaspie
8 96 Bogman Harrison Bader

 

 

Lucas Erceg is a great pick here. Especially as this was done before his hot spring. Best upside hitter in this round. Gonsalves and Alcantara are really good late round starting pitcher picks. One reason why I am comfortable getting my pitching late. I did just that after my Kopech pick when I took Walker Beuhler. Injuries set his excitement back, but many rankers have him inside their top 100 (as do I). Tom Murphy is not a pick a like, especially as the same team took Zack Collins a couple rounds prior. I have 3 catchers in my top 3, and they had already gone by round 8. Bogman’s final pick of Harrison Bader is sneaky good. I am higher on Bader than most. He isn’t flashy, he isn’t walking around with crazy tools, but he is a guy that will just get it done. Just watch!

 

 

RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
9 97 Bogman Dylan Cozens
9 98 Scott Sixto Sanchez
9 99 Chamey Christin Stewart
9 100 Steve Fernando Tatis Jr
9 101 Joe Bobby Dalbec
9 102 Welsh Yohander Mendez
9 103 Souriyo Chance Sisco
9 104 Thomas David Paulino
9 105 Craig Oscar De La Cruz
9 106 Dusty Jesse Winker
9 107 Youngberg Jake Bauers
9 108 Jesse Luis Alexander Basabe

 

 

THREE…THREE of my guys went a head of me in this round. Very upset about Sixto Sanchez going, as I wanted to pair Kopech and Buehler with Sixto. Next up Fernando Tatis stung. I had a chance to watch him get into a spring training game. He walked and flew thru the bases. I grabbed his ear after the game, and this dude is just a ball player. I am excited to see him in the future. Then the pick right before me one of the guys I have been championing all off-season, Bobby Dalbec goes. That hurts. I went with a value pick in Mendez as he has been falling (great stuff, listen to my interview with Longenhagen a while back, but there is a bullpen fear). Winker and Basabe great picks near the end.

 

 

RD PICK TEAM PLAYER
10 109 Jesse Jahmai Jones
10 110 Youngerg Will Benson
10 111 Dusty Alex Verdugo
10 112 Craig Jesus Luzardo
10 113 Thomas Richard Urena
10 114 Souriyo Lazaro Armenteros
10 115 Welsh Taylor Trammell
10 116 Joe Brady Aiken
10 117 Steve Tyler Beede
10 118 Chamey Zack Burdi
10 119 Scott Joey Wentz
10 120 Bogman Junior Fernandez

 

 

This is a great spot to go all out! If there are no more picks, I have no issue going way off list. I didn’t have to, as I was really surprised Taylor Trammell was still sitting around. I have him inside my top 85, and he’s a target of mine, so this was an EASY pick. Armenteros, Fernandez, Jones and Luzardo were all off board type of guys which are fine to take here. Wentz was a great value. I’d also say it’s super popular to hate on Brady Aiken this year, but at the 116th pick, I have no issue taking a shot in the dark. I love Will Benson btw.

 

Follow me on Twitter @IsItTheWelsh

Chris Welsh hosts the Football, Baseball and Basketball podcasts with Scott Bogman. The Welsh is the creator of Prospect One, the fantasy baseball prospect podcast, and the series of content surrounding prospects.

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Fantasy Baseball Articles

Fantasy Baseball 12 Team 5×5 Mock Draft Results

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Below are the results for our 12 team standard 5×5 mock draft that we did with the ITL Army. Listed are the first 12 rounds. You can listen to the podcast where we talk about this draft RIGHT HERE!

 

Join up to be a member of the army and support your boys to create more and more fantasy baseball content that not only wins your league, but makes you laugh! 2 Secret Shows a month to make you laugh, a monthly fantasy chat, giveaways, discount codes and more! Find it all at the ITL Army Page Today! THIS IS A TEST! http://godaddy.com

 

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Round 1
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
OF Anthony Trout, Mike – LAA 1 1
2B Jesse S Altuve, José – HOU 2 2
1B Evan Goldschmidt, Paul – ARI 3 3
3B Rosa Arenado, Nolan – COL 4 4
SS Trevor Welsh Turner, Trea – WAS 5 5
OF Kory Harper, Bryce – WAS 6 6
OF Gammill Blackmon, Charlie – COL 7 7
SP Bogman Kershaw, Clayton – LAD 8 8
3B Brian Roecker Bryant, Kris – CHC 9 9
OF The Welsh Betts, Mookie – BOS 10 10
SS Just A Guy Correa, Carlos – HOU 11 11
OF Robert Russell Stanton, Giancarlo – NYY 12 12
Round 2
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
OF Robert Russell Judge, Aaron – NYY 1 13
SP Just A Guy Sale, Chris – BOS 2 14
1B The Welsh Votto, Joey – CIN 3 15
SP Brian Roecker Kluber, Corey – CLE 4 16
3B Bogman Machado, Manny – BAL 5 17
SP Gammill Scherzer, Max – WAS 6 18
1B Kory Freeman, Freddie – ATL 7 19
1B Trevor Welsh Rizzo, Anthony – CHC 8 20
SS Rosa Lindor, Francisco – CLE 9 21
SP Evan Bumgarner, Madison – SF 10 22
OF Jesse S Springer, George – HOU 11 23
OF Anthony Martinez, J.D. – (N/A) 12 24
Round 3
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
SS Anthony Seager, Corey – LAD 1 25
3B Jesse S Ramírez, José – CLE 2 26
2B Evan Gordon, Dee – SEA 3 27
C Rosa Sánchez, Gary – NYY 4 28
OF Trevor Welsh Bellinger, Cody – LAD 5 29
3B Kory Donaldson, Josh – TOR 6 30
SP Gammill Greinke, Zack – ARI 7 31
OF Bogman Cruz, Nelson – SEA 8 32
SS Brian Roecker Bregman, Alex – HOU 9 33
SP The Welsh Syndergaard, Noah – NYM 10 34
1B Just A Guy Abreu, José – CHW 11 35
SP Robert Russell Strasburg, Stephen – WAS 12 36
Round 4
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
1B Robert Russell Hoskins, Rhys – PHI 1 37
3B Just A Guy Rendon, Anthony – WAS 2 38
SP The Welsh Ohtani, Shohei (R) – LAA 3 39
OF Brian Roecker Marte, Starling – PIT 4 40
SP Bogman Carrasco, Carlos – CLE 5 41
OF Gammill Ozuna, Marcell – STL 6 42
SP Kory deGrom, Jacob – NYM 7 43
SP Trevor Welsh Severino, Luis – NYY 8 44
SP Rosa Verlander, Justin – HOU 9 45
MI Evan Dozier, Brian – MIN 10 46
SP Jesse S Darvish, Yu – (N/A) 11 47
SP Anthony Martínez, Carlos – STL 12 48
Round 5
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
OF Anthony Pollock, A.J. – ARI 1 49
OF Jesse S Benintendi, Andrew – BOS 2 50
CI Evan Encarnacion, Edwin – CLE 3 51
2B Rosa Murphy, Daniel – WAS 4 52
RP Trevor Welsh Jansen, Kenley – LAD 5 53
OF Kory Upton, Justin – LAA 6 54
SS Gammill Andrus, Elvis – TEX 7 55
2B Bogman Schoop, Jonathan – BAL 8 56
OF Brian Roecker Buxton, Byron – MIN 9 57
OF The Welsh Hamilton, Billy – CIN 10 58
MI Just A Guy Segura, Jean – SEA 11 59
OF Robert Russell Yelich, Christian – MIA 12 60
Round 6
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
3B Robert Russell Sanó, Miguel – MIN 1 61
SP Just A Guy Ray, Robbie – ARI 2 62
CI The Welsh Myers, Wil – SD 3 63
SP Brian Roecker Nola, Aaron – PHI 4 64
OF Bogman McCutchen, Andrew – PIT 5 65
1B Gammill Hosmer, Eric – (N/A) 6 66
SP Kory Archer, Chris – TB 7 67
OF Trevor Welsh Pham, Tommy – STL 8 68
OF Rosa Céspedes, Yoenis – NYM 9 69
OF Evan Davis, Khris – OAK 10 70
SS Jesse S Bogaerts, Xander – BOS 11 71
3B Anthony Turner, Justin – LAD 12 72
Round 7
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
SP Anthony Keuchel, Dallas – HOU 1 73
SP Jesse S Berríos, José – MIN 2 74
RP Evan Kimbrel, Craig – BOS 3 75
OF Rosa Santana, Domingo – MIL 4 76
C Trevor Welsh Posey, Buster – SF 5 77
2B Kory Canó, Robinson – SEA 6 78
3B Gammill Shaw, Travis – MIL 7 79
MI Bogman Merrifield, Whit – KC 8 80
CI Brian Roecker Devers, Rafael – BOS 9 81
SP The Welsh Arrieta, Jake – (N/A) 10 82
CI Just A Guy Lamb, Jake – ARI 11 83
SP Robert Russell Quintana, José – CHC 12 84
Round 8
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
SP Robert Russell Tanaka, Masahiro – NYY 1 85
OF Just A Guy Braun, Ryan – MIL 2 86
UT The Welsh Cabrera, Miguel – DET 3 87
RP Brian Roecker Chapman, Aroldis – NYY 4 88
SP Bogman Paxton, James – SEA 5 89
OF Gammill Castellanos, Nicholas – DET 6 90
CI Kory Moustakas, Mike – (N/A) 7 91
SP Trevor Welsh Wood, Alex – LAD 8 92
SP Rosa Gray, Sonny – NYY 9 93
UT Evan Odor, Rougned – TEX 10 94
C Jesse S Contreras, Willson – CHC 11 95
2B Anthony Moncada, Yoán – CHW 12 96
Round 9
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
MI Anthony Gregorius, Didi – NYY 1 97
SP Jesse S Stroman, Marcus – TOR 2 98
RP Evan Knebel, Corey – MIL 3 99
OF Rosa Eaton, Adam – WAS 4 100
2B Trevor Welsh Taylor, Chris – LAD 5 101
SP Kory Cole, Gerrit – PIT 6 102
SP Gammill Godley, Zack – ARI 7 103
RP Bogman Giles, Ken – HOU 8 104
2B Brian Roecker Happ, Ian – CHC 9 105
OF The Welsh Acuña, Ronald – ATL 10 106
2B Just A Guy LeMahieu, DJ – COL 11 107
P Robert Russell Lester, Jon – CHC 12 108
Round 10
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
P Robert Russell Price, David – BOS 1 109
SP Just A Guy Castillo, Luis – CIN 2 110
UT The Welsh Olson, Matt – OAK 3 111
1B Brian Roecker Mancini, Trey – BAL 4 112
OF Bogman Cain, Lorenzo – (N/A) 5 113
RP Gammill Díaz, Edwin – SEA 6 114
UT Kory Carpenter, Matt – STL 7 115
SP Trevor Welsh McCullers Jr., Lance – HOU 8 116
SP Rosa Hendricks, Kyle – CHC 9 117
UT Evan Santana, Carlos – PHI 10 118
1B Jesse S Bell, Josh – PIT 11 119
RP Anthony Osuna, Roberto – TOR 12 120
Round 11
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
SP Anthony Duffy, Danny – KC 1 121
MI Jesse S Báez, Javier – CHC 2 122
3B Evan Seager, Kyle – SEA 3 123
P Rosa Weaver, Luke – STL 4 124
RP Trevor Welsh Allen, Cody – CLE 5 125
SS Kory Story, Trevor – COL 6 126
CI Gammill Gallo, Joey – TEX 7 127
1B Bogman Bour, Justin – MIA 8 128
RP Brian Roecker Bradley, Archie – ARI 9 129
RP The Welsh Iglesias, Raisel – CIN 10 130
RP Just A Guy Rivero, Felipe – PIT 11 131
2B Robert Russell González, Marwin – HOU 12 132
Round 12
Pos Team Player Pk Ov
UT Robert Russell Puig, Yasiel – LAD 1 133
OF Just A Guy Desmond, Ian – COL 2 134
3B The Welsh Béltre, Adrián – TEX 3 135
OF Brian Roecker Polanco, Gregory – PIT 4 136
RP Bogman Hand, Brad – SD 5 137
RP Gammill Colomé, Alex – TB 6 138
P Kory Fulmer, Michael – DET 7 139
OF Trevor Welsh Schwarber, Kyle – CHC 8 140
RP Rosa Davis, Wade – COL 9 141
SP Evan Gray, Jon – COL 10 142
P Jesse S Cueto, Johnny – SF 11 143
1B Anthony Smoak, Justin – TOR 12 144

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Duck Tales

Baseball Duck Tales – 2017 Season Wrap (NL)

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Amidst the Shohei Ohtani and Stanton madness (How exciting is this stuff?!) and basically nothing else (How boring is this stuff?), we continue our season wrap up of the 2017 Duck leaderboard, this time highlighting one standout Duck rating from the NL teams. As per usual for posterity, if you’re new to the series, the Duck is a combined calculation of a number of metrics to find an accessible representation of pitching performance. Check out the origins of the calculations here.

For reference, here are the 2017 league averages for starters according to Fangraphs:

  • SwStr%: 9.80%
  • K%: 20.60%
  • BABIP: 0.299
  • BB%: 8.10%
  • xFIP: 4.41
  • HardCon%: 32.30%
  • ERA: 4.49
  • WHIP: 1.36

Let’s take a look at some standout Ducks from the NL this year.

NL East

  • ATL: Julio Teheran (109th)
    • Was it really going to be anyone else? Teheran went from a very rock solid and safe top-25ish guy to doing almost nothing above league average. Part of it “could” be the new ballpark, but we don’t have nearly the data to confirm the ballpark will trend to a hitter’s haven. On top of that, Teheran’s BABIP hints that he might have even been a little lucky on balls in play. I’m not against him in general but there’s more downside than upside at this point.
  • MIA: Dan Straily (54th)
    • I like Dan Straily. There, I said it. I just feel that the range of outcomes is not very wide for him. He’s a boring pitcher, but eating innings is important throughout the fantasy season. One of the arguments against him: “But he plays for a garbage team so he won’t get wins!” My response: “Don’t use wins.”
  • NYM: Matt Harvey (147th)
    • I’m very sad. I just want Matt Harvey to be good again. I just want to believe that the injuries and the Adriana Lima debacle made him suck. I just want to be happy. Maybe the fear about returning from thoracic outlet surgery and never being the same is valid (despite the limited cases studies we have. I’m not a doctor.). I think if he looks at least goodish coming into the season, I’ll take the plunge one more time. Feel free to join me but I don’t want to take responsibility if we drown.
  • PHI: Aaron Nola (20th)
    • Aaron Nola is a star. There’s talk of him comfortably in the top 20 going into next season and the Duck doesn’t have issue with that. He’s another one of those “all green” players on the metric, and I don’t have nearly the same injury concerns that I have with the other all green mentioned in the last article (James Paxton). I’m happy with Nola as my SP2 or SP3 in 2018
  • WSH: Gio Gonzalez (93rd)
    • Obviously. This season-long excellence pretty much came as a pretty big surprise. Gio Gonzalez has been on the spectrum from “he’s a fine pitcher” to “oh, that was actually a pretty good season” for a long time. This was a step even further above that and I think it’s well established that we don’t expect something like this again. Still, there’s going to continue to be mid-round value that shouldn’t be ignored.

NL Central

  • CIN: Luis Castillo (29th)
    • Castillo is the new darling in many expert circles. He’s a little wild, but the strikeouts are very tantalizing. He’s going to be right there in the top 30 range for a lot of rankers, but I’m definitely wary of repeatable performance. I just don’t like the idea of taking him as a shiny new toy over someone like Jon Lester who has a track record of solid production for years.
  • CHC: Jon Lester (30th)
    • Speaking of Jon Lester… by all intents and purposes Jon Lester had a bad season. A 4.33 ERA is unheard of for Lester in recent memory. Still, the underlying numbers think he’s way better than advertised (another all green) and while I’m not a Lester guy (it’s mostly just his face, really) there are a plethora of worse options.
  • MIL: Jimmy Nelson (13th)
    • We need the DH in both leagues. It’s just a shame that Jimmy Nelson is going to miss half the season with a base running injury. After a few seasons of will he/won’t he become a guy, this last season he actually did become a guy, and that guy played a pivotal role in getting the Brewers to an unprecedented playoff berth. I can’t help but think it could have been a different story if both Nelson and Chase Anderson had been healthy. Still, there’s a chance Nelson is priced down significantly because of the injury, and could be a sneaky later round pick.
  • PIT: Gerrit Cole (35th)
    • Let me preface this: I think Gerrit Cole is good. I think he could still be great. But I would be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge that the numbers to this point have been disappointing. Someone who can dial it up to 98+ should theoretically be able to blow hitters away and he hasn’t shown that ability consistently. I wonder if this could be a change of scenery case. There have been talks of Cole to the Twins, and if that happens, I might just push him up my board a bit as a speculative upside play. We’ve seen it before, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t be a sub-3 ERA guy again.
  • STL: Lance Lynn (125th)
    • Lynn is going to be on another team next year, who will be looking for a stable 200 inning guy in the middle of their rotation to eat up innings in the dog days of the summer. I’ll note that Lynn hasn’t gotten to 200 innings in three seasons, but the idea is valid. I kind of think the Duck falls a bit short on this measure. The rating thinks he is far below average given the metrics, but I just feel like Lynn is a valuable middle rotation MLB piece and a valuable back end rotation fantasy piece and there’s just not a ton of questions there.

NL West

  • ARI: Zack Godley (24th)
    • We love Zack Godley. He’s just a fun player. Being able to keep the ball on the ground as he does is a great boon in that ballpark and ties in well with surprisingly high strikeout numbers. I feel as though he’ll be a little undervalued at the draft table, but I don’t see a lot of reasons he’s not going to be some shade of 2017 again.
  • COL: Jon Gray (22nd)
    • If he was on any other team, Jon Gray would be considered a true ace, a top-15ish starter, and someone you were okay with as your SP1.5 in fantasy. I’m very pro Gray and I think he’s the guy who will be the first pitcher to overcome Coors since Ubaldo Jimenez back in 2010. I dream of an ERA under 3.30.
  • LAD: Alex Wood (19th)
    • I bought into Wood after his first lengthy campaign in Atlanta in 2014, and it obviously didn’t play out as expected and I didn’t initially pay much mind to him putting together what ended up being an amazing season as a whole this season. The injury was there because of course we can’t have nice things. He faded down the stretch and that is some cause for concern but anywhere between 3.20 and 3.40 in 2018 would be a great follow-up season.
  • SD: Dinelson Lamet (77th)
    • Lamet is the epitome of risky flamethrower. The stuff is there, the consistency and the control are just not. An alarmingly high hard contact rate shows that if he wasn’t fanning or walking the hitters, he was turning around to watch the ball fly past him into the outfield. He seems like a big high risk/high reward play next season.
  • SF: Johnny Cueto (73rd)
    • There has been a lot of panic about Cueto and the fact that he had objectively an awful season. I guess I’m just not that worried. Just like Lester, this track record he’s shown matters. In a very early mock I was involved in, Cueto was available well into the mid-100 pick range, and I just think that’s silly. No one would be surprised if Cueto can get back to a low 3 ERA, especially in that home ballpark, and I would be drafting him pretty close to Lester as a proven commodity and take the fall if they’ve really gone off a cliff.

That’s a wrap of our brief look through the inaugural season of the Duck rating. I expect that we’ll check in before the season and preview the major pitcher signings and their outlooks in the upcoming season, so stay tuned!

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Fantasy Podcasts

Episode 45 – Prospect Player Debates Part 1 with James Anderson of Rotowire

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James Anderson of Rotowire is back on the show as he and The Welsh are doing a two part debate series. Today we’ve got 10 player vs player match-ups that will get your mind moving like Chavis vs Riley or Robles vs Jimenez!

 

Check out my latest article at Rotowire on prospects who raised their stock from the AFL

 

Have a question for the show? Tweet me @IsItTheWelsh with the hashtag #ProspectOne to talk about your question on the show, or email me at ProspectOne@inthisleague.com

 

Enjoy the podcast? Subscribe to the show on iTunes today. Please consider giving the show a rate and review. It helps us out big time! Don’t do iTunes? We’re on TuneIn right hereAlso find the show on Stitcher If you want to participate in the show with a Prospect Fantasy Question, a Story, Autograph stories, really anything, hit me up at @IsItTheWelsh@gmail.com

 

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Find me on Twitter @IsItTheWelsh and on Instagram @IsItTheWelsh

 

 

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